Ao atingir a metade de seu segundo mandato, o governador Romeu Zema (Novo) enfrenta um dilema estratégico que pode redefinir seu legado político. Após defender privatizações como uma de suas principais bandeiras, Zema agora avalia uma rota alternativa: federalizar estatais estratégicas como forma de renegociar a gigantesca dívida de Minas Gerais com a União.
Esse possível redirecionamento foi impulsionado pela aprovação, no Senado, de um projeto liderado por seu adversário político, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), que prevê novas condições para a renegociação das dívidas estaduais. Minas tem uma dívida estimada em R$ 165 bilhões, a proposta de federalização ganha destaque ao oferecer abatimento de juros e a possibilidade de um alívio financeiro imediato.
A Federalização na prática
A proposta em análise permitiria que o governo mineiro entregasse ativos estaduais, como a Cemig (Energia), a Copasa (Saneamento) e a Codemig (Desenvolvimento Econômico), para abater até 42% de sua dívida. Essa abordagem representaria uma virada de 180 graus na política econômica do governador, que até recentemente defendia a privatização dessas companhias.
Segundo Zema, os ativos são fundamentais para a renegociação. “O que queremos é que a União considere os ativos do estado, que serão transferidos, e o valor abatido. No caso da Copasa e da Cemig, é mais fácil definir os valores, já que são empresas cotadas em bolsa”, afirmou.
A Cemig e a Copasa têm ampla importância no cenário econômico e social do estado, mas sua desestatização enfrenta resistência histórica. Já a Codemig, que possui reservas valiosas de nióbio, apresenta potencial estratégico, mas com desafios na definição de seu valor de mercado.
Privatizações
A virada em direção à federalização contrasta com a postura do governo até novembro. Zema havia enviado dois projetos à Assembleia Legislativa propondo a privatização da Cemig e da Copasa, com articulações para avançar o debate em 2025.
Além disso, o governo trabalha para eliminar a exigência de referendos populares antes de realizar desestatizações, por meio de uma Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC). Contudo, a PEC permanece engavetada na Comissão de Constituição e Justiça (CCJ), refletindo a dificuldade de aprovação de medidas impopulares.
Pesquisas reforçam o obstáculo político: um levantamento da Quaest revelou que 51% dos mineiros se opõem à privatização da Copasa, enquanto apenas uma parcela minoritária se declara favorável à venda da estatal.
Cálculos políticos e pressões populares
Nos bastidores da Assembleia Legislativa, o discurso de Zema levanta diferentes interpretações. Para alguns parlamentares, a federalização pode ser uma estratégia para contornar a baixa viabilidade política das privatizações, que enfrentam resistência tanto no parlamento quanto entre a população.
Outros veem a mudança como um aceno estratégico à União, que poderia legitimar a pauta original das privatizações caso o governo federal demonstre desinteresse em absorver os ativos estaduais.
O deputado oposicionista Professor Cleiton (PV), que já havia proposto a federalização da Cemig e da Copasa, argumenta que a medida seria mais vantajosa financeiramente para Minas Gerais do que uma privatização. “Seria plenamente viável, e o estado arrecadaria mais do que repassando à iniciativa privada”, declarou Cleiton.
Impactos e cenários futuros
A decisão entre federalizar ou privatizar não é apenas técnica, mas também profundamente política. Ao optar pela federalização, Zema pode aliviar a pressão financeira do estado, mas corre o risco de desagradar eleitores que esperavam uma gestão alinhada ao ideário liberal defendido por seu partido.
Por outro lado, insistir nas privatizações pode minar sua base política e dificultar a aprovação de outras pautas prioritárias, especialmente diante da resistência popular e parlamentar.
No horizonte, resta saber se a federalização se consolidará como solução pragmática ou se será utilizada como peça estratégica em um jogo político que visa, no longo prazo, retomar a agenda original de privatizações.
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A morosidade de ambas as partes evidencia nossa atual situação política e econômica. Do lado do Estado de Minas as movimentações sorrateiras tentando vender partes, daquelas que serão dadas como moeda de troca, da União a mão mole, frouxa, que não se impõe. O descaso em saber de onde veio a dívida e quais foram os beneficiados, porque o povo mineiro nada viu desse dinheiro. Dividas deixadas dos bancos estatais, Minas Caixa, Credireal e Bemge, que após privatizados não tiveram os valores das vendas, destinados a quitação da dívida do estado. Sabemos quem endividou os bancos, quem privatizou e desapareceu com o dinheiro, que a correção da dívida é ilegal e imoral. A lei Kandir poderia ter sido utilizada, para praticamente quitar essa dívida e a incompetência dos nossos políticos, não requerendo os royalties do minério, assim como os que o Rio de Janeiro recebe do petróleo.
Minas Gerais pode não ter recebido royalties do minério por causa da sonegação de impostos por parte das mineradoras.
A Compensação Financeira pela Exploração de Recursos Minerais (CFEM), também conhecida como royalties da mineração, é uma contribuição que deve ser paga pelas empresas que exploram minérios. O valor arrecadado é repassado para as prefeituras e comunidades locais.
De acordo com o Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), entre 2017 e 2022, 69,7% dos titulares de processos de concessão de lavra e licenciamento não pagaram a CFEM.
A Agência Nacional de Mineração (ANM) é responsável por fiscalizar os pagamentos da CFEM, mas a falta de estrutura da agência dificulta o trabalho.
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