Vista inicialmente como certa, a reeleição em primeiro turno da candidata à Prefeitura de Contagem, na Grande BH, Marília Campos (PT) pode estar ameaçada por sua perda de terreno nas intenções de voto das últimas pesquisas e sobretudo em razão da arrancada do rival, o deputado federal Junio Amaral (PL).
Tomando por base a última pesquisa do Instituto Veritá, com entrevistas realizadas com 810 pessoas em campo, de 3 a 8 de setembro, a prefeita aparece com 47,2% dos votos totais, um patamar de 64,6% dos votos válidos – são necessários 50% votos válidos mais um voto para fechar a eleição no primeiro turno. Mantidas as proporções de votos considerados, se ela perdesse 8,15 pontos percentuais (pp) totais desceria a 49,9% dos votos válidos (excluem brancos e nulos) e com isso ocorreria um segundo turno.
Pode parecer um volume de votos muito expressivo a se perder, mas na pesquisa passada, ocorrida 19 dias antes – quando ainda não tinha a propaganda eleitoral- a atual administradora municipal de Contagem chegou a apresentar 64,6% de votos totais e Junio Amaral 9,8%. Ou seja, ela sofreu uma forte queda de quase 1 ponto percentual diário (17,4 pp em termos de votos totais de pesquisas diferentes), enquanto o rival subiu em vigorosa arrancada, para 27,3% na última pesquisa Veritá (17,5 pp em termos de votos totais de pesquisas diferentes).
Mantido esse ritmo – e não se sabe se isso ocorrerá -, seria preciso quase metade do tempo (10 dias), para que a eleição em Contagem chegasse a ter condições para ser decidida apenas em um segundo turno, desconsideradas as margens de erro.
Ainda segundo a última pesquisa Veritá, rejeição à prefeita também é alta, com 43% dos eleitores afirmando que não votariam nela de forma alguma. Amaral, embora em segundo lugar nas intenções de voto, também enfrenta uma rejeição significativa, de 37,1%.
Outros candidatos, como a empresária Dulce (PMB), o professor Gustavo Olímpio (PSTU), aparecem em posições mais modestas, com percentuais que os colocam em uma disputa técnica pela terceira posição, quando considerada a margem de erro de 3,5 pontos percentuais. Dulce tem 2,3% das intenções de voto, Olímpio 1,1%, e Pessoa 0,7%.
A empresária Dulce (PMB) tem 7,5% de rejeição. Já o professor Gustavo Olímpio tem 6,1% de rejeição.
A pesquisa revela um cenário ainda em transformação, com grandes chances de mudanças até o dia da eleição, especialmente entre o eleitorado indeciso e com a influência de lideranças nacionais como Lula e Bolsonaro.
Contagem é um dos 103 municípios brasileiros que por terem mais de 200 mil eleitores podem ter segundo turno, sendo que Minas Gerais tem oito municípios nesta situação (Belo Horizonte, Uberlândia, Contagem, Juiz de Fora, Betim, Montes Claros, Uberaba e Ribeirão das Neves). De acordo com o Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Contagem reúne 459.110 pessoas aptas a votar.
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