A decisão do governo mineiro de conceder pacotes de bondades para empresários, incluindo isenções e reduções de alíquotas que se estendem até 2028, tem implicações significativas tanto para a economia estadual quanto para as finanças públicas. Ao oferecer esses benefícios fiscais, o governo de Romeu Zema (Novo) reduz a arrecadação de impostos, especificamente ICMS e IPVA, resultando em uma renúncia fiscal que totalizará R$ 147 bilhões até 2028. Esse montante é comparável à dívida de R$ 165 bilhões do estado com o governo federal.
A situação financeira do estado é ainda mais complexa considerando que, recentemente, o STF, por meio do ministro Nunes Marques, concedeu ao estado mais um prazo para retomar o pagamento das parcelas de sua dívida com a União. Esta foi a quinta suspensão consecutiva, contrariando a recomendação da AGU (Advocacia-Geral da União). Essa prorrogação de pagamentos indica uma dificuldade contínua do estado em gerir suas finanças e cumprir suas obrigações financeiras com o governo federal.
Por um lado, os pacotes de bondades podem ser vistos como uma tentativa de estimular o crescimento econômico, atrair investimentos e, potencialmente, gerar empregos. No entanto, a renúncia de uma quantia tão expressiva em impostos também pode ser criticada por comprometer a capacidade do estado de arrecadar receitas necessárias para financiar serviços públicos e infraestrutura, especialmente em um contexto onde já enfrenta dificuldades para honrar suas dívidas.
A proposta de entrada no Regime de Recuperação Fiscal (RRF) tem gerado um debate acalorado. De um lado, a gestão Zema argumenta que a flexibilização nas regras fiscais e a suspensão temporária dos pagamentos da dívida darão ao estado o fôlego necessário para reorganizar suas finanças e fomentar o crescimento econômico. Por outro lado, críticos apontam que a adesão ao RRF sem uma revisão criteriosa dos benefícios fiscais pode levar a uma situação insustentável, onde o estado continua a perder receita sem garantias claras de retorno em investimentos e desenvolvimento.
No caso do ICMS, a renúncia mais que triplicou em seis anos, de R$ 4,7 bilhões em 2018 para R$ 15,4 bilhões este ano. Na Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias, a atual gestão prevê que o valor chegue a R$ 19,1 bilhões até 2028
A maioria é em crédito presumido: mais de R$ 14 bilhões. Com esse tipo de benefício, a empresa recebe um desconto e não precisa pagar ICMS sobre cada transação de compra e venda. Em seguida, vêm as reduções de base de cálculo (R$ 619 milhões) e as isenções (R$ 264 milhões).
Os benefícios com o IPVA também dispararam. Eram R$ 95 milhões em 2018 e passaram para R$ 2,5 bilhões neste ano, um aumento de 26 vezes. A previsão é chegarem a R$ 3,3 bilhões em 2028.
Para a oposição, as isenções fiscais e a dívida se cruzam, mas são assuntos diferentes. O grande problema, dizem, é a falta de clareza do Executivo para comprovar as vantagens das renúncias fiscais.
Benefícios às locadoras de carros. As facilidades concedidas às locadoras para o pagamento do IPVA não são novidade no estado. Mas voltaram à discussão quando parlamentares estaduais fizeram uma denúncia ao Ministério Público alegando que, desde 2018, o Executivo não cobra das locadoras uma complementação quando transferem os veículos usados para revenda.
A alíquota reduzida de 1% começou em 2003 no governo Aécio Neves (PSDB), quando a Localiza, voltou a emplacar em Minas, sede da empresa, antes maioria dos carros eram emplacados em no Paraná e Espirito Santo. Em 2017, o governo de Fernando Pimentel (PT) passou a exigir pagamento complementar, tendo como referência os 4% cobrados dos contribuintes na revenda.
O governo Zema sucedeu o do petista e não cobrou os valores que faltavam na época. Isso só começou a ser feito no fim de 2022, meses após o fundador da Localiza, Salim Mattar, ser nomeado consultor da gestão Zema para projetos estratégicos da Secretaria de Desenvolvimento.
A falta de cobrança gerou críticas por beneficiar a empresa de Mattar. Seus sócios bancaram 28% dos gastos eleitorais de Zema na campanha de 2022.
Quando Mattar era consultor do governo Zema, a Assembleia Legislativa aprovou projeto isentando as locadoras do pagamento complementar e mantendo a alíquota em 1%. No mês seguinte ao que ficou conhecido como “Lei Salim Mattar”, o empresário deixou o posto.
No ano passado, Zema alegou que demorou cinco anos para cobrar os valores complementares das locadoras porque temia haver insegurança jurídica. No seu entendimento, disse, a cobrança era inconstitucional. A tese, porém, foi rejeitada pelo MP na época.
Os benefícios podem dificultar a aprovação da entrada de Minas no Regime de Recuperação Fiscal (RRF). Em tramitação no Congresso, a entrada do estado no RRF é defendida pela gestão Zema, sob o argumento de que permitiria organizar as finanças estaduais com flexibilização nas regras fiscais, operações de crédito e suspensão de pagamento da dívida.
A AGU sustenta que o governo de MG deve aprovar medidas de contrapartida no Legislativo estadual para aderir o regime. Além disso, o órgão defende que as parcelas da dívida com a União sejam pagas normalmente.
A União entende como imprescindível a sinalização de comprometimento do estado de Minas Gerais com o reequilíbrio fiscal.
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