Aécio Neves, deputado federal pelo PSDB de Minas Gerais, tornou-se um dos principais articuladores do partido na Câmara dos Deputados. O ex- governador de de Minas e ex-candidato à presidência reconheceu que o PSDB tem enfrentado dificuldades, com o partido perdendo força nas últimas eleições.
A derrota expressiva nas eleições municipais deste ano impulsionou os dirigentes do PSDB, PDT e Solidariedade (SD) a considerarem a formação de uma nova federação partidária. A cláusula de barreira, que estipula um número mínimo de votos para que partidos tenham acesso ao fundo partidário e tempo de TV, é o principal motivo por trás dessa movimentação. Criada em 2017, essa cláusula já afetou partidos menores nas eleições de 2018 e 2022 e agora ameaça até mesmo legendas tradicionais da Nova República.
O PSDB, que enfrenta uma crise profunda há quase uma década, viu sua bancada federal ser reduzida a 13 parlamentares em 2022 e perdeu quase metade de seus prefeitos na eleição municipal recente. O Solidariedade, liderado por Paulinho da Força, também sofreu um grande revés, mesmo após incorporar o PROS. O partido passou de 135 prefeituras em 2020 para apenas 62 este ano.
Paulinho da Força revelou que as negociações com PSDB e PDT estão avançadas, com o objetivo de formar uma federação ampla, possivelmente envolvendo até cinco partidos, para evitar a dominação de uma única sigla. A ideia é anunciar a federação em novembro.
O impacto da cláusula de barreira é evidente: em 2020, 29 partidos elegeram prefeitos, mas esse número caiu para 21 em 2023. A regra atual exige que os partidos elejam ao menos 11 deputados federais ou obtenham 2% dos votos válidos para a Câmara, com pelo menos 1% em nove estados. Em 2026, a exigência será ainda maior, com 13 deputados federais ou 2,5% dos votos válidos e 1,5% em nove estados.
A experiência com federações e fusões entre partidos não tem sido promissora, com muitas legendas perdendo força. Mesmo assim, a aposta no modelo persiste. As conversas entre PSDB, SD e PDT começaram há meses, após o PDT desistir de uma negociação com o PSB.
A principal preocupação é evitar que uma sigla domine a federação, como aconteceu com PT, PCdoB e PV. O PT se fortaleceu, enquanto os aliados menores perderam muitas prefeituras. O Cidadania também enfrenta dificuldades na federação com o PSDB e considera rediscutir a aliança.
O PSOL e a Rede, que formam uma federação, também enfrentam desafios. O PSOL não conseguiu eleger nenhum prefeito este ano e teve uma queda no número de vereadores no Rio. A Rede também perdeu prefeituras.
André Figueiredo, presidente do PDT, admite que um possível acordo com o PSDB é mais pragmático do que programático. Ele sugere que a discussão sobre federações envolva a disputa pela presidência da Câmara, com a possibilidade de retomar as coligações nas eleições proporcionais, um mecanismo que ajudava partidos pequenos a sobreviver.
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