Pesquisa eleitoral feito pelo instituto Paraná Pesquisas, encomendado pelo partido Progressistas (PP), revela que o governador de Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), tem 34,6% das intenções de voto em uma possível disputa presidencial em 2026, enquanto o presidente Lula (PT) tem 44,5%. Zema é citado na pesquisa como o candidato apoiado pelo ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro. O atual presidente e o ex-presidente aparecem tecnicamente empatados no estudo. Conforme os dados do levantamento, no cenário principal, Bolsonaro está na liderança com 37,1% das intenções de voto, seguido de perto por Lula, com 35,3%.
Considerando a margem de erro de 2,2 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos, os dois estão tecnicamente empatados. O estudo também revela a presença de outros candidatos, como o ex-ministro Ciro Gomes (PDT), com 7,5% das intenções de voto, a ministra Simone Tebet (MDB), com 6,1%, e o governador do Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), com 1,8%. Além disso, 8% dos entrevistados afirmaram que votariam em branco, nulo ou nenhum, enquanto 4,2% não souberam ou não quiseram responder.
Bolsonaro demonstra vantagem sobre Lula em diversos segmentos do eleitorado, incluindo homens, eleitores entre 25 e 59 anos e aqueles com níveis de educação mais elevados, como ensino médio e ensino superior. No entanto, a maior diferença está entre os evangélicos, onde Bolsonaro lidera com 50% das intenções de voto contra 27,3% de Lula.
Por outro lado, Lula obtém vantagem entre os católicos, eleitores com ensino fundamental ou mais de 60 anos, jovens de 16 a 24 anos e mulheres. Ele também lidera nas regiões Nordeste, enquanto Bolsonaro se destaca no Sul, Sudeste e Norte/Centro-Oeste.
A coleta de dados para a pesquisa foi realizada através de entrevistas pessoais, entre os dias 18 e 22 de março de 2024, em 26 estados e no Distrito Federal e em 162 municípios brasileiros. O grau de confiança é de 95,0% para uma margem estimada de erro de 2,2 pontos percentuais para os resultados gerais.
Bolsonaro está inelegível até 2030 por decisão do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Ele foi condenado pelos ataques que fez ao sistema eleitoral brasileiro durante reunião com embaixadores, em julho de 2022. O TSE entendeu que houve abuso de poder político e uso indevido dos meios de comunicação.
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